Rep. Paul Ryan Will Rein in House Budget Committee in 2011

Advice to forecasters: 'Give a number or a date but never in the same sentence.' The following is a forecast that ignores the good advice given in the first sentence.

For a change, there is some good news. The double-dip recession that some of us had feared if Congress raised taxes on the most productive people has been avoided for the moment, and as a result, many forecasters have increased their growth estimates for 2011 to more than 3 percent. But the country needs sustained growth rates above 3.5 percent to bring down unemployment in a reasonably rapid way."